Steve Ballmer of Microsoft says Facebook is probably a fad, and considering the fate of Friendster and the increasingly decrepit Myspace, I suspect he’s right. The larger question, as new media advocates and old-media hangers-on jump from the newest teen fad to the next in a vain attempt to remain on the bleeding edge of the evolving social media, is whether these networks will always have such short life spans. If so, it does not bode well for a well-develop and matured social news network, as such a goal requires a aggregate of trusted users and relationships who have developed an body of individual or collaborative work. I can’t see this mass migration from one well-trafficked network to another, in which the social relationships and body of media that has been developed on the old network is abandoned, to be sustainable in the long term.
The only way I see these social networks as having any kind of lasting impact, the sort that could develop a legitimate social-networking media buffet with the credibility of a legitimized old-media powerhouse, is if the networks currently at the top (and the major ones to emerge) strive for some sort of shared standards of interoperability among platforms. Which I know sounds somewhat insane–imagine asking Digg, Myspace and Facebook to all work nice together. But the history of emergent technologies on the web suggests that some interoperability is essential for people’s long-term satisfaction with the basic functions of the site. Email is a killer app because anyone with email can email anyone else with an email account. The web works because of open standards (despite Microsoft’s best efforts otherwise.) RSS is a revolutionary because it’s compatible across platforms, web browsers and devices–in fact, most of Facebook’s value to me comes in its ability to easily integrate RSS feeds I choose, a functionality Myspace lacks–and makes it seem incredibly out of date.
In this sense, I think what a successful and sustainable social media will have to share is some sort of open standard, where people can a least share a login, or profile information, or blend feeds from one network into another seamlessly. I doubt the biggies of today would try such a thing–too convinced they can somehow transform the sharing of web ephemera into a Google-level success–but it could be a very plausible model for whatever platforms will inevitably take their place.
From Wikipedia: The Richat Structure, a prominent circular feature in the Sahara desert of Mauritania near Ouadane, has attracted attention since the earliest space missions because it forms a conspicuous bull’s-eye in the otherwise rather featureless expanse of the desert. Described by some as looking like an outsized ammonite in the desert, the structure, which has a diameter of almost 50 kilometres (30 miles), has become a landmark for space shuttle crews. Initially interpreted as a meteorite impact structure because of its high degree of circularity, it is now thought to be a symmetrical uplift (circular anticline or dome) that has been laid bare by erosion. Paleozoic quartzites form the resistant beds outlining the structure.
An interview with Lou Barlow of Dinosaur Jr., Sebadoh and The Folk Implosion.
Paul M Davis